Changing times
Times are a changing. Politics too is undergoing a change. the old order is giving way to the new and may I say, brash? Best part is, nobody seems to be able to predict the change. In fact, when it comes to elections all predictions (bar a few of the rebellious ones) seem to be going horribly wrong! What on earth has happened to the good old art of psephology?
Anyways, just to recap, first it was the surprise of a certain Modi sweeping the electoral fields of India without much of a notice. Since it was a big surprise, let us give mother earth a couple of years to catch a breadth! Or was it too much? I mean the two years of breathing time, you silly! Well then, cometh 2016 and you suddenly had a small surprise in Brexit. Hold on, it was a small surprise, given that what we witnessed in the US of A, was man......a colossal surprise. Trump won? Well yes, I believed it would happen. But hey, the world didn't! And still, happen it did!
Continuing in the same trend, don't be surprised if one Ms Marine Le-Pen goes on to be President of France! Coz you know why? and how? Despite all poll predictions? Well for one, the public, from time to time, just wants to pull one out of its hat and surprise the world. Admittedly, its the psephologists who have to bite the tongue the most, having convincingly predicted the reverse outcome.
I know what you are thinking. "How can this lady win? After all, she is a clear 20 percentage points behind Macron in the poll predictions!" To you, my dear friend, I have a couple of reasons to put forth. And forget the rabbit out of the hat reasoning I had put forward moments ago.
1. You see, of all the votes cast in the primary, votes to the 3 candidates propagating leaving EU, together account upto 45.9%. That's a big number in itself. Yes, that includes the 19 odd percentage to the leftist Melenchon. And Melenchon has not given his indication to supporting any of the two finalists. But, (and this comes from recent experience gained by this world) when the electorate has made up its mind to support a hardline stand (as in this case, leaving EU), it generally sticks to it. The only thing now that will matter in this case, would be the amount of absenteeism from this block of voters. Rest assured, if only Ms LP plays it right to the crowd and does no goof ups, she shall inherit this vote bank on the 7th of May. After all, she has taken 2nd position in almost each district where she didn't win. Not that a district wise data matters. But goes to show the kind of support she would hope to get in a final countdown where every vote matters. And when your candidate is not in the finals, you tend to move in line with your local sentiment.
Not enough? Or is it too less a percentage at 46 to win, is what you are implying? Well then, here comes my second argument favoring the black horse.
2. France (as also some other EU nations) has over the last few years, been bearing the brunt of extremism rather let me term it correctly as terrorism. And most would agree that part of this has to do with the changing demography of the nation and immigration in recent decade. Ms LP is precisely harping on this point while not actually saying so, rightly because she doesn't want to be branded communal. And being branded communal is the worst title you can inherit in a flexible and all welcoming french society (yes, yes, its an all welcoming society. Just that you need to be able to communicate in English! (winks)). Coming back to the point, there have been quite a few atacks by terrorists in the recent months, leading to support getting consolidated in favour of leaving EU and its immigration policy (A la Brexit). And the latest attack a couple of days before first round elections will surely dent a few of Macron and Fillon leaning votes from the first round.
And then you have one for the fact that in the first round, no candidate made it past 25 percent. In fact, the two finalists together polled around 45 percent of the votes. That leaves the majority electorate to woo. Some would be wooed by the appeals of their original choice. some others by the agenda of choice. And there would be some more, and I guess, around 20 percent of the total electorate intending to vote, that will make or mar the candidacy of Macron and LP. Macron has early mover advantage in this vote bank (which I expect to be non partisan), by being seen as a candidate devoid of affiliations with any established political party (he has been an independent ever since he left the socialists in 2009, and has remained so, despite being in the Hollande ministry until last year, when he launched En Marche! post his resignation). Ms LP is now trying to emulate Mr. Macron by announcing to leave her party, National Front, thereby projecting herself as the leader of the Nation, and consequently, showcasing that she is relinquishing the ideals of the party for the cause of the nation.
Who wins this election is what the public of France will ultimately tell, but it is sure to count as another change in the course of 21st Century politics of France and to an extent, the fate of EU and the World.
Anyways, just to recap, first it was the surprise of a certain Modi sweeping the electoral fields of India without much of a notice. Since it was a big surprise, let us give mother earth a couple of years to catch a breadth! Or was it too much? I mean the two years of breathing time, you silly! Well then, cometh 2016 and you suddenly had a small surprise in Brexit. Hold on, it was a small surprise, given that what we witnessed in the US of A, was man......a colossal surprise. Trump won? Well yes, I believed it would happen. But hey, the world didn't! And still, happen it did!
Continuing in the same trend, don't be surprised if one Ms Marine Le-Pen goes on to be President of France! Coz you know why? and how? Despite all poll predictions? Well for one, the public, from time to time, just wants to pull one out of its hat and surprise the world. Admittedly, its the psephologists who have to bite the tongue the most, having convincingly predicted the reverse outcome.
I know what you are thinking. "How can this lady win? After all, she is a clear 20 percentage points behind Macron in the poll predictions!" To you, my dear friend, I have a couple of reasons to put forth. And forget the rabbit out of the hat reasoning I had put forward moments ago.
1. You see, of all the votes cast in the primary, votes to the 3 candidates propagating leaving EU, together account upto 45.9%. That's a big number in itself. Yes, that includes the 19 odd percentage to the leftist Melenchon. And Melenchon has not given his indication to supporting any of the two finalists. But, (and this comes from recent experience gained by this world) when the electorate has made up its mind to support a hardline stand (as in this case, leaving EU), it generally sticks to it. The only thing now that will matter in this case, would be the amount of absenteeism from this block of voters. Rest assured, if only Ms LP plays it right to the crowd and does no goof ups, she shall inherit this vote bank on the 7th of May. After all, she has taken 2nd position in almost each district where she didn't win. Not that a district wise data matters. But goes to show the kind of support she would hope to get in a final countdown where every vote matters. And when your candidate is not in the finals, you tend to move in line with your local sentiment.
Not enough? Or is it too less a percentage at 46 to win, is what you are implying? Well then, here comes my second argument favoring the black horse.
2. France (as also some other EU nations) has over the last few years, been bearing the brunt of extremism rather let me term it correctly as terrorism. And most would agree that part of this has to do with the changing demography of the nation and immigration in recent decade. Ms LP is precisely harping on this point while not actually saying so, rightly because she doesn't want to be branded communal. And being branded communal is the worst title you can inherit in a flexible and all welcoming french society (yes, yes, its an all welcoming society. Just that you need to be able to communicate in English! (winks)). Coming back to the point, there have been quite a few atacks by terrorists in the recent months, leading to support getting consolidated in favour of leaving EU and its immigration policy (A la Brexit). And the latest attack a couple of days before first round elections will surely dent a few of Macron and Fillon leaning votes from the first round.
And then you have one for the fact that in the first round, no candidate made it past 25 percent. In fact, the two finalists together polled around 45 percent of the votes. That leaves the majority electorate to woo. Some would be wooed by the appeals of their original choice. some others by the agenda of choice. And there would be some more, and I guess, around 20 percent of the total electorate intending to vote, that will make or mar the candidacy of Macron and LP. Macron has early mover advantage in this vote bank (which I expect to be non partisan), by being seen as a candidate devoid of affiliations with any established political party (he has been an independent ever since he left the socialists in 2009, and has remained so, despite being in the Hollande ministry until last year, when he launched En Marche! post his resignation). Ms LP is now trying to emulate Mr. Macron by announcing to leave her party, National Front, thereby projecting herself as the leader of the Nation, and consequently, showcasing that she is relinquishing the ideals of the party for the cause of the nation.
Who wins this election is what the public of France will ultimately tell, but it is sure to count as another change in the course of 21st Century politics of France and to an extent, the fate of EU and the World.
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